The Movie Nut

80th Academy Awards

Remember "Four Weddings and a Funeral"? Oscar's picks this year in the Best Picture category might aptly be referred to as "Four Death Knells and a Birth." Man's darkly sinister inhumanity to man has a definitive thematic stranglehold. And then there's "Juno," an ode to our upcoming generation's sense of freedom and maturity, a colorful wildflower sprouting in this year's cinematic cemetery.

If "Juno" should prevail, it's only because the bigger, meaner heavyweights may have knocked themselves out by Sunday night. I'm not necessarily saying "Juno" is the year's best picture (okay, I'm saying it's the year's second-best picture), but this indie gem might astound everybody.

I'm not sure why films are so bleak this year, and I refer not just to the high body counts (a Hollywood staple) but also to the nihilistic zeal of such rampant bloodbathing. Hollywood is intent in showing off our intrinsic meanness. Does somebody in Tinseltown need in a hug?

Best Supporting Actress

Even though Academy voters receive DVD screeners- all the Oscarnominated films in all major categories- there's no guarantee they will hunker down as if perusing the Dead Sea Scrolls. Thus, I feel a number of smaller films and those associated with them will have triumphed and added ticket sales simply by being nominated.

Such will be the fate of the phenomenal Cate Blanchett playing a Bob Dylan pseudofragment named Jude Quinn in the art-house bio "I'm Not There." Ditto for Amy Ryan's powerful performance as an addict in Ben Affleck's under-the-radar "Gone Baby Gone." Saoirse Ronan does a terrific job in the bittersweet, yet manipulative, epic "Atonement," and rumor has it that Ruby Dee may have sentimental groundswell support for her brief, son-slapping appearance in "American Gangster."

For my money, however, Tilda Swinton's startlingly honest performance as a corporate lawyer run amuck in "Michael Clayton" is profoundly Oscarworthy.

This critic's pick: Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton")

Probable winner: Ruby Dee ("American Gangster")

Best Supporting Actor

Seems like there's always one really tough category to evaluate come Oscar time; for me, this year it's the Best Supporting Actor category. Tom Wilkinson was marvelous in "Michael Clayton"- although the man's performances are typically so terrific that I think he'll be overlooked. The same applies to Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War." Hal Holbrook is a sentimental favorite for his role in the otherwise sadly overlooked "Into the Wild"- although his screen time is quite brief.

It comes down to Casey Affleck's nicely sniveling performance in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" and Javier Bardem's deliciously antisocial behavior in "No Country for Old Men." (Why Josh Brolin wasn't nominated for the same film, I'll never understand.) I think "No Country" may be on a roll this year, so I expect Bardem to win.

This critic's pick: Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James")

Probable winner: Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men")

Best Actress

Four of the five actresses in this category should boost the popularity of their films simply by their nominations- and thus the films and actresses will be winners in their own right. Such is the fate of Cate Blanchett (her second nomination this year) in the little-seen sequel "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"; Laura Linney as the abandoned, lonely Wendy in "The Savages"; and Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose," a biography of Edith Piaf.

For my money, it's a two-way race. British legend Julie Christie's already scored a Golden Globe win for her sensitive portrayal of an Alzheimer's sufferer in the two-hanky "Away From Her." Since the wellbuzzed "Juno" may be outmuscled in the (usually testosteronedriven) Best Picture category, Ellen Page could garner enough support for her smart and sassy performance in that film. The demographics being what they are, I suspect the Oscar nod will go to Ms. Christie.

This critic's pick: Ellen Page ("Juno")

Probable winner: Julie Christie ("Away From Her")

Best Actor

Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises) and Tommy Lee Jones ("In the Valley of Elah") dominate two more violent films in this year's maelstrom of death, but neither effort has the legs (or had the audience) to produce a winner. In what may becoming increasingly clear, I believe "Michael Clayton" was the year's primo picture, and I think George Clooney gave a superb performance.

However, I think this year's Best Actor nod is a tossup between sentimental favorites Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd") and Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"). I was personally disappointed in both films (giving "Blood" the lowest score- 2.5 out of 5- of any review I've since seen). Both actors, however, are deserving and worthy of the statue, and at the Oscars, like it or not, history counts. One will win. So let's flip a coin.

This critic's pick: George Clooney ("Michael Clayton")

Probable winner: Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood")

Best Director

I'll make this short. I suspect "No Country for Old Men" will be the critical fave this year. Yes, it's horrifically bloody, but it's also riveting . . . until the last 10 minutes just kinda go "poof!" Not to mention that the noirish Coen brothers, Ethan and Joel, are overdue for their Best Director statues. Paul Thomas Anderson's ("There Will Be Blood") time will come.

This critic's pick: Tony Gilroy ("Michael Clayton")

Probable winner: Joel and Ethan Coen ("No Country for Old Men").

Best Picture

I'm not sure why ambivalent endings have become de rigueur- both "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" end somewhere other than at the end. Seems I'm the only critic in America somewhat bothered by this trend. Both films feature wonderful performances, but Best Pictures? Sorry, but I do like a commitment by the time I walk out of a theater.

Although a little too ripe with innuendo, "Atonement" is the kind of film that would have won a decade ago (it's better than, say, "The English Patient"), but this doesn't seem the right moment for the epic. The pre-Oscar buzz has fingered either "Country" or "Blood" as a winner.

However, I shall renominate my own favorite, "Michael Clayton," which I suspect will fall between the cracks. I also think that "Juno" is Hollywood's bone thrown to appease the younger, trendier crowd. I'd be pleased to see "Juno" win, and if so, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

This critic's pick: "Michael Clayton"

Probable winner: "No Country for Old Men"